Showing posts with label Lessons Learned. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lessons Learned. Show all posts

Monday, September 20, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Jeff Pietsch from the ETF Prophet blog discussing the advantage of talking through your trades and documenting thoughts. TRADING IS A GAME OF PATIENCE.  WRITING DOWN OR SPEAKING YOUR THOUGHTS HELPS CRYSTALLIZE YOUR ACTIONS!  THESE DOCUMENTS CAN BECOME AN EXCELLENT TOOL TO REVIEW YOUR ACTIVITY AND IMPROVE PERFORMANCE.  VERBALIZING ACTIONS HELPS CATEGORIZE TRADING ACTIVITIES, MAKING IT EASIER TO RETAIN SPECIFIC SKILLS.

The Gift of Gab & Trader Performance

In our ETF Prophet chat room last week, I was asked what motivates me to host the room. The first and easiest answer is the social aspect. Trading can be a lonesome endeavor, and it’s nice to have a virtual bull pen with which to share insights and ideas, as well as camaraderie and the occasional joke. If there seems to be a focus on the latter much of the time, I assure you it has more to do with day-trading being 90% patience waiting for proper set ups than anything else. When the trade is on, we are (usually) quite serious.

But the chat room serves another purpose for me as well, and that is to articulate my day-trade rational in written form. I find it extraordinarily helpful to pen what I see and why I take action in real-time, both as a form of documentation and for the teaching benefit of the group, but also as a means of cognitive self-talk. Indeed, this is one of the primary reasons that I started blogging to begin with. This latter point is the focus of this post, where I suggest that it may be even more beneficial to trader performance to physically verbalize out-loud what we see….

After decades of debate, scientists are building an increasing body of experimental evidence that our world-view, and indeed our very cognitive abilities are strongly shaped by our verbal aptitude. From a recent article by Robson(1) summarizing the significant connection between language and cognition,

“… language helps us to think and perceive the world… like a form of augmented reality, an overlay that changes how we think, reason and see…”

Interestingly, when I asked our very own “Doc” Martindale to review this piece, he found this quotation consistent with his own point of view. As a therapist, he has observed that people search for the causes of their problems while failing to see that they are often related to and indeed grounded in their very own vocabulary.

What We Say Affects How We See

Here are key “take-aways” from the Robson article:
  • 70-80% of our mental experience appears verbal, rather than visual or emotional;
  • We are better able to group objects into categories if we have learned a category name;
  • Speed of object recognition is significantly increased through this same mechanism;
  • Having and speaking names for objects also aids in memory, including retention of specific details;
  • Hearing verbs associated with objects affects the eye’s sensitivity to the described action, priming sensitivity to such stimulus; and,
  • Over generalization within a learned category is a potential downside, possibly reducing some attention to differentiating details.
In summary, having a vocabulary and language to explain and categorize our visual experience is, overall, a significant cognitive advantage. Essentially we create ourselves in dialog, speaking and language. We invent and create ourselves as we speak and do — we are what we say. Thus, using our language out-loud may confer important added benefits. I also wonder if continuously increasing one’s self-taught “vocabulary” through study and observation doesn’t largely overcome point six, constituting a large part of the oft referenced “10,000 hours to become an expert” rule.

Mapping a Vocabulary for Day Traders

While my swing trades are largely quantitative driven, my day-trade/scalps and hedges are somewhat less so and are certainly much more visually focused, even if driven by a myriad of essentially quantitative indicators. The practical relationship of the Roberson take-aways to my day-trader performance is therefore clear. Indeed, this article “opened my own eyes” to the potential benefits of literally talking through my trades out-loud.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Timothy Bohen from the TBohen.com blog discussing the advatage of waking up early to prepare for the trading day. GETTING UP EARLY HELPS BUILD DISCIPLINE! THE EARLY HOURS ALLOW YOU TO PREPARE EFFICIENTLY WITH FEW OR NO DISTRACTIONS.  ROUTINE MORNING PREPARATION WILL HELP BUILD CONFIDENCE AND PATIENCE FOR THE TRADING DAY. THIS WILL MAKE YOU BETTER THAN YOUR COMPETITION WHO DOES NOT PREPARE EACH MORNING!

Part time penny stocks workflow – Rule 1 – Get up Early #PTPS
 
In this post I would like to cover what I think to be one of the most important methods to follow to be a successful trader. While in my mind it is important to every trader, but particularly if you are a part timer there is immense value in getting up early on a consistent basis.
 
I have found that most traders particularly part timers prefer to stay up late and research then drag themselves out of bed 10 minutes before the market open and expect to be prepared and ready to trade. I’m sure I will get countless counter arguments but I think that it is truly idiotic and naive to expect to be able to trade successfully in the morning and even throughout the day without some sort of consistency and routine based on a consistent rise time.
 
One of the biggest reasons I think getting up early consistently is important to a trader is due to the fact that trading successfully demands intense discipline. If you can’t drag your lazy ass out of bed early and consistently how do you expect to apply any sort of consistent discipline to your trading? Gamblers sleep in and refuse to put in the work away from the table, traders get up and prepare and approach the market with a plan.
 
By getting up early and implementing a consistent workflow you can approach the market confident and with your thoughts and mindset locked in. I’ve found days that I do not get up on time and rush through my research, or worse yet complete no research and expect to trade only on the information available at that instant, I will consistently enter “random” bad trades. To truly be prepared I believe a routine needs to be created, and by refining and following this routine, you will become more consistent, more confident and more importantly more patient. I have NEVER entered a “random” trade on days I rose at 5AM and completed my entire workflow routine. At times it’s amazing the heightened level of patience on fully prepared days. Of course that increased level of patience will invariably create days of extremely low trade volume. And on some days no trades whatsoever. I will cover “not trading” extensively in another chapter, but at this point just know that “not trading” is the most powerful tool of all to the part timer!
 
Considering the lack of interruptions the early morning hours are also greatly valuable to research and prepare. Since I’m assuming you have a day job and family and friends, you are subject to 100’s of distractions in the evening. One thing I can count on is barring total emergency the hours of 5AM to 7AM are mine and mine alone. No phone calls, no emails, no interruptions. Not only does this allow you to focus, it allows you to truly learn and get your thoughts in order. It also allows you to work through your preparation process in a much quicker and more efficient fashion. What could have been 2 hours of research in the evening could be potentially reduced to one hour or less in the morning. Not only are you free from interruptions, you are hopefully free from scheduling conflicts as well. The part time trader will have numerous evening commitments that could potentially sidetrack research time. Family, friends, work, and hobbies should be utilizing your evening hours NOT the fucking market.
 
Another chapter will cover the addictiveness of the market. But at this point I will press the point that by disconnecting from the market in the evening you will be far less crackheaded about your desire to follow the market. Spend the time where it really counts, with your family, friends or learning and hobbies. Don’t waste 1/3 of your day looking at flashing green and red numbers.
 
The last and in my mind most important aspect of rising early and sticking to a routine is the confidence and cockiness felt by knowing you got up early and prepared while 99% of your competition in the land of penny stocks, slept in, is hungover, and probably ate fifteen donuts for breakfast. This could be simply my personality, but I have to believe in the world of trading it is valuable to know subconsciously that you are prepared and better then the other guy. On days I follow my routine to a “T” I am ready to kick the asses of every lazy penny stocker out there, and over and over those days are by far my most profitable. The only days they are not profitable is when I don’t trade. The likelehood of taking a loss can only be reduced by preparing not eliminated, but again in my years of experience the potential for making a bad trade is extremely reduced by preparation.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Pradeep Bonde from the StockBee blog discussing how to track news events and develop procedrual memory.     NEWS CREATES LARGE, LIQUID MOVES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.  YOU MUST BE METHODICAL AND DEVELOP A SET PROCEDURE TO TRACK NEWS THAT CAN MOVE STOCKS! YOU SHOULD REVIEW NEWS EVENTS IN THE EVENING AND MORNINGS BEFORE THE MARKET OPENS TO IDENTIFY NEWS CATALYSTS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.  PERSISTENT STUDY OF NEWS EVENTS WILL HELP YOU DEVELOP THE ABILITY TO LEARN WHAT NEWS MOVES STOCKS.  YOUR DOCUMENTATION AND RESEARCH METHODS SHOULD BE DEVELOPED WITH PROCEDURAL MEMORY THROUGH PRACTICE!

The Real "Secret" to Trading Intraday Moves

On a daily basis big moves in stocks are precipitated by news. Often stocks will make 8 to 20% or more move in a day based on news. If you systematically track news and know how it is likely to affect a stock you can find many profitable breakouts early in the morning.

What should you track:

Patient Fisherman earnings movers: He compiles a list of after hours movers in convenient easy to use format from various places. The skill required here is the ability to decide before open what % move a stock is likely to make based on such move and entering quickly if you see a big potential mover.

Briefing.com : Track all news released from 4 pm onwards. Skill required here is the ability to interpret how that news will move the stock next day. News about earnings, Govt Policy changes, new products, guidance, analyst upgrade and downgrade tends to be market moving.

Earnings Whisper Email: This gives you list of stock with earnings guidance.

IBD highlighted Stock: Due to large subscriber base the highlighted stocks in various section can make big moves.

Top 20 sector Stocks: If you don't know which sectors are leading or lagging the market you should seriously ask yourself what are you doing. People spend more time counting the hair on James Crammer's head than doing thing which can make them money.

Top1% stock by momentum: Stocks with momentum are the stocks in play currently. They tend to have bigger moves than any other stocks. If you can not name top 10 to 20 stocks by momentum, you are not really serious about your trading.

From these lists and sources once you generate ideas it is your ability to determine which stock is likely to make big move out of this that is important. That is a skill which you will develop over time if you do this over a period of months. At first it will be overwhelming but slowly you would start getting it. You will understand how earnings, guidance, or analyst action moves stocks.

Once you understand that then you need skill to enter and exit quickly. Many of the news plays involve entering as early as possible. Entry in many of these is easy part, the ability to exit profitably is also key. For most news plays if you can determine profit target it is easy. It allows you to exit at your target. Again this is a skill area and you will develop the skill over multiple trades.

How much to risk on such news plays is also critical. Often such news plays can make 8% to 20% moves in a day. So your risk should vary according to potential. If you see a 20% potential play and then do not risk sufficient amount on it, then it is waste of opportunity.

To develop such a kind of skill to play news is not an easy thing. It requires daily focus and persistence. If you are one of those who is waiting for someone to provide these kind of plays on golden platter and also tell you how to enter and exit and how much to risk while someone is polishing your Ferrari and some scantily clad women are waxing your ear hairs, then you have no idea how short term trading works. And no business trying it.

Short term trading on intra day basis is about procedural memory. Procedural memories are memories about how to do things. Procedural memory work on principle of automaticity. When you develop a skill in such areas the task is automated and brain can perform the task without cognitive overload.

If you want to see procedural memory at work, observe Tumblers trades (Tumbler is a member of www.stockbee.biz who posts his intra day trades daily in real time on members site). What he does is he plays news on intra day basis very successfully. How does he do it, he has a set procedure for doing his analysis, entry, exit, risk management and so on. Once he gets going he is not conscious of what he is doing. That is why when people ask him question , he may not be able to tell you what made him enter or exit a trade. Procedural memory is very difficult to verbalise. Those who can do things are not necessarily able to verbalise the steps or thinking that is going through their mind when performing that procedure.

Procedural memory skill involved in intraday trading is highly refined skill. It is a complex skill which involves processing hundred or more factors in a flash of a second. Procedural memory skills are difficult to transfer from one person to another unless the other person is highly motivated and persistent. There is a transfer loss when trying to explain the skill. There are hundreds of nuances involved in such skills.

The way to develop procedural skills is through extensive practice. Over repeated practice the skill becomes a procedural memory. And you must also practice the correct method. Unless you understand the concept of procedural memory well, you should not attempt short term trading.

Most people are frustrated in their trading because they do things that hinder procedural memory development. They flirt from one method to another, they follow distinct styles simultaneously, they are not methodical, they seek excitement, they have unrealistic expectations and so on. If you are very good it will take you around six months to master a complex procedural memory task with all out effort. If you are slacker probably it will take you few years. You have to ask yourself that question , do I have that kind of commitment to persist in this effort.

There are hundreds of newsletters and sites which will promise you easy way to make money or some secret which you can learn and then buy a Caribbean island. You can believe all that hype but that is not the real secret to trading success. The real secret to trading successfully is about developing procedural memory. And there are very few shortcuts to developing procedural memory.Show me any site or newsletter which exclusively focuses on procedural memory.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Doc Martindale from the ETF Prophet blog discussing the need to develop personal structure for successful trading. LEARNING AND SUCCESSS CANNOT HAPPEN WITHOUT STRUCTURE OR A FRAMEWORK FOR IMPROVEMENT! YOU MUST PURSUE AND RUN YOUR TRADING PROFESSION LIKE A BUSINESS! YOU MUST BE SUCCESSFUL AT MANAGING YOURSELF, CREATING DISCIPLINE, AND CREATING STRUCTURE BEFORE YOU CAN BE A SUCCESSFUL TRADER!

Structure - An Important Aspect of Trading
 
Significant dilemmas are posed when one decides to work for themselves in a trading career. For example, structuring your time, creating achievable goals and objectives, self-managing the rules you create, and a host of additional tasks.
 
These concerns are compounded when considering that the independent trader is going up against some of the sharpest and brightest minds in the world.
 
As most of us complete some form of formal education we often move into the workplace which includes a structure that is already in place. Successful businesses have a defined structure characterized by accountability, operating procedures, agreements, job descriptions, etc…
 
If one adheres to the structure and does a competent job they are rewarded in a variety of ways. One cannot become complacent when it comes to being an employee of a business because the consequences are swift and unforgiving.
 
Going Out on Your Own
 
In the last decade with the advent of the internet many people have decided to go into the trading profession, or, at the very least, manage their own investments on a full or part-time basis. Whether one has the talent, genetic makeup and the education and training needed to be successful is not the focus of this series, rather, it is about creating structure and learning to manage oneself.
 
For the moment let’s assume you do have some experience and a predisposition to be a successful trader/investor. Let’s also assume you’re not working at a successful trading firm with supportive education, but are trading at home or in an office space that you have rented.
 
Home versus the Workplace
 
Let’s draw a distinction between the hours we are at the workplace in a structured environment and the hours we are off work where structure is less defined. Some people have learned to create and manage themselves within a structure that is less defined; however in my opinion most of us find it difficult to create structure in our private lives in such areas as exercise, cultural and aesthetic pursuits, spending money wisely, etc…
 
When we are at the workplace we are managed (whether you are the CEO or the Janitor), but when we get off work–it’s we who have to manage ourselves. When you are at work and have to manage someone else’s money or their accounts payable it’s easier to be objective within the confines of your company’s accountability and standard operating procedures than when you have to manage your own.
 
So now we go from a structured workplace and start a trading career where there is no structure, no blueprint and no one to manage you. You’re the CEO, CFO, and the secretary who will have to manage all the resources you have. There is no one to tell you what time to come to work, what your specific jobs are, how to organize your time, what objectives you need, what your trading plan is, or how you will hold yourself accountable for the “rules” you’ve created.
 
Things do not just fall into place—you are going to have to create a structure (and it’s more than just a three page trading plan), a system, a plan to assist you on how to achieve and measure success because it will not happen any other way. You will have to work very hard to acquire it and without structure things fall apart and you will not achieve your objectives. Successful businesses have a very defined structure (a history) and we must see ourselves like that in the context of trading. The question one must ask is: are we running our trading profession like a business?
 
Part 2 Focuses on Discipline
 
In Part 2 of this series we will go into how to manage and discipline ourselves once the structure and the continued building of the structure is in place. For some people (not all) it’s not that difficult to write trading plans and rules, identify weaknesses and strengths, create objectives and goals, yet the true measure of one’s trading success is largely dependent upon our ability to manage ourselves, to create discipline, to create structure and the experience of equanimity and integrity.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Pradeep Bonde from the StockBee blog discussing the fundamentals of trading success. METHODOLOGY TRUMPS THE MARKET, FOCUS ON THE THINGS YOUR CAN CONTROL! TIMEFRAME AND VEHICLE SELECTION ARE CRITICAL. GROWTH AND MOMENTUM EQUITY TRADES CAN MAKE HUGE CANS IN SHORT PERIODS. TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND CONTROLLING YOUR TRADING MIX IS THE KEY TO PROFITABILITY!

The Key to Trading Success
 
We all trade our "beliefs". My basic belief is that methodology trumps the market. The market is a unknown variable, it does its own thing, you cannot control it. It is full of surprises, is ever changing, is often unpredictable, it offers too many choices, and so on. So market direction is not under my control. But what methods to use to extract profits from the market are under my control. If I do a very good job of controlling what I can control then there is a profit opportunity in the market to exploit.
 
Trading in actual mechanics terms is simple.You buy, you sell, you put a stop, you risk a certain % of capital. Those are the basic elements common to all trades. All trading decisions fall in to five "controllable" categories which I call Trading Mix:
 
1. What time frames to trade (trade frequency)
  • day trade
  • swing trade
  • position trade
  • macro trade
It is your choice as to which time frame to trade. This is a very critical decision and it dictates your rest of the trading mix elements. If supposing you decide to be a day trader, the entry, exit, risk strategies and market you decide to trade are very different. For the Working People site my strategy is to Position Trade and hold trades for long term. That means I have to look at completely different kind of stocks when looking at making a recommendation on that site. My stops and risk management strategy is different.

Unless you are clear about what time frame you want to trade you will be confused and in Brownian motion. If you have full time job , can you realistically trade on daily or swing time frame?. You can try but it will be very difficult. If you are day trader, you will find holding positions for longer duration very difficult. It is difficult to switch time frame. If your mindset is capturing 25 cents to 50 cents move, trying to capture 20 to 50% move is different game. Only very experienced traders can do it. If you are beginner, in the process of trying to do both you would get more confused. Day traders typically risk much larger amount of their capital on a single trade. So for them liquidity is critical. If you are day trader you need to understand the micro structure of the market and the motivations of major players in it very well. You have to continously update your understanding of the micro structure as strategies and technology changes. If you decide to be day trader the kind of databases, news sources, and other feed services and software is very different from someone wanting to swing trade.

2. What markets to trade (equity selection)
  • equity (growth, momentum, value, technical analysis)
  • futures
  • options
  • currencies
  • etfs
Once you decide your trading time frame then which market to trade becomes a critical decision. Supposing you want to trade the daily time frame then the futures market are better than stock. They have high liquidity and offer high leverage. So many day traders focus on them.

Each market has its own peculiarity. It takes months or years to perfect strategy in most markets. The reason I trade equities is because in stock markets there are every year situations where some stocks will make very big moves. Moves of 1000% plus can happen in the markets. ETF cannot have those kinds of moves. That is the reason I do not focus on them.

I do once in a while trade futures and working on developing strategies on both futures and currencies market and that is one of my focus areas for next year. But I have definite edge in equities and so I focus on them.

Within stocks I primarily focus on growth and momentum. Why because growth and momentum stocks historically makes biggest moves on shorter time frames. I have spent significant efforts in understanding these two kinds of stocks and very confident of my methods and understanding.

3. When, where, and how to enter them (entry selection)
  • When to enter (at open, after open, close, etc)
  • How to enter (market order, limit order, basket order, etc)
  • Where to enter (channel break, pullbacks, breakouts of support, at resistance, etc)
4. When , where , and how to exit them (exit selection)

5. How to manage risk (risk management)
  • How much to risk per trade
  • Where to put stops
  • How and when to use margin
All these decisions are under a traders control. These are the variables you need to work with to design a profitable method. This is where a trader should spend bulk of his time. If you do a good job of controlling what is under your control then you will be in charge of your trading and the market will not be. You should focus your area of study on these controllable variables. People have studied various entry strategies, various exit strategies, various stop strategies , various risk management strategies. What works and why on these controllable variables is easily available and is in public domain.

This is the basics of trading. If you master this then you can apply the same principle to any market and market time frame.

This is very basic trading decision. You must think through this. If you don't enter or exit at right time it is difficult to make money and manage risk. Entry is critical if you are trader. The whole idea behind being a speculator is to "time the market", to "time the entry" , to "time the exit", and to "vary risk depending on situation". Those are the core skills of speculators as against investors. Many times I get emails asking, whether they should enter a position or increase size on open positions , at that time I am thinking of exiting the position. Essence of speculation is "timing" . Don't speculate unless you understand that.

The profit opportunity is in the market if you get the mix of above elements right the result is profit. Each of these five variables are completely under your control. If you change these variables your profit increases or decreases. So for a same size of profit opportunity in the market two traders using two different set of trading mix will have completely different profit outcomes. Controlling your trading mix is the key to profitability.

Unless you have these basics in place, no amount of trading psychology is going to help you. Because your problem is not mindset or discipline at that stage but it is ignorance. Unless you educate yourselves on the controllable factors the market will remain a big mystery to you.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Babak from the Traders Narrative blog discussing the analogy between surfing waves and trading. BE PATIENT BECAUSE THERE IS ALWAYS OPPORTUNITY! THE MARKET CAN CHANGE QUICKLY.  TIMING AND LOCATION (VEHICLE SELECTION) ARE CRITICAL TO SUCCESS. NEVER TAKE ON TOO MUCH RISK, AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT YOUR PRECIOUS CAPITAL!

Lessons From Riding Different Kind of Waves
 
As you’ve probably noticed, things have been rather quiet in this neck of the woods. For the past few days I was enjoying the sun and surf at Kaua’i. I’m slowly settling back into my routine and hope to resume our regularly scheduled programming by next week.
 
While I tried valiantly to appear like I knew what I was doing, I ended up being tossed around like a ragdoll by the powerful currents off the coast of the Garden Island. In between getting sunburned, swallowing way too much sea water and catching a few precious waves, a few things occurred to me. Like for example, attempting to ride water waves is very similar to riding price waves in the financial markets:
 
Be patient, there will always be another wave along
There is little benefit to getting upset for missing out since the waves just keep coming. So what if you missed a trading opportunity? Instead of wasting your energy punishing yourself over it, channel it to finding the next one. There is always one or a dozen around.
 
Some waves are deceptively weak and some deceptively strong
Perhaps it was my inexperience but I was surprised by how little I could judge the strength of incoming waves. Some would look powerful only to degrade into nothing instantly. Others seemed to come out of nowhere and push me around like nothing more than mere detritus.
 
This reminded me of how difficult it is to judge the size of moves and whether we have a secular to cyclical wave. For example, how many bought gold at $300, only to sell at $400 and never get back in?
 
Riptide and cross currents can be dangerous!
I knew better than to venture out in dangerous waters seeking larger waves. The locals had no such qualms. So unless you really know the territory, the smarter option is to avoid the risk.
 
How many traders flit about from market to market? trading equities, one day, currencies the next, cocoa, gold, etc. ignoring that each market has its own intricacies and “locals” who know the conditions more intimately than you?
 
Have a safety net in place but don’t take it for granted
Go to life-guarded beaches…but don’t depend on them to save your life. I avoided beaches without life-guards but at the same time, I never took the protection they provide for granted.
 
How many traders think they are “protected” by having stop-losses only to see the market gap way outside? or how about our all too human propensity to misunderstand probabilities?
 
Timing is everything
Knowing when the next wave will come is critical. You not only can save your strength but you can position yourself to ride it at just the right time.
 
While academics usually sneer at those who attempt to time the market, it is not only possible, it is critical to long term trading success.
 
Location is everything
Even if your timing is perfect, you can very well find yourself at a poor location where the water is boringly calm. So even if you’re the world’s best surfer, you’ll be bored to tears if you find yourself in suddenly placid waters.
 
Of what use is being able to perfectly time the market if you haven’t first identified the market that will move the most? or one that is in a secular trending conditions?
 
Finding the sweet spot
Staying close to shore usually gives you small waves (the exception was Kealia beach). Straying out more into the ocean provides more powerful waves but also much more risk. The waters off Hawaii have strong currents, not to mention various species of sharks. One wave smacked me upside the head so hard I thought it was someone’s errant board.
 
In trading, taking too much risk (or not realizing you’re out of your element) can be extremely dangerous. While things may go swimmingly for a while, eventually, probability will catch up to you.
 
Conditions can change in the blink of an eye
The ocean is a living thing so just as you get used to conditions they can suddenly change. Unless you’re aware of this, you can be caught off guard or pulled way out by strong currents.
 
In trading, once a trend is identified, more and more people pile on, assuming that it will continue and continue. Of course, it doesn’t. Things can change very rapidly, as we’ve just seen recently in the equities markets. Always keep this in mind and as the saying goes, “dance close to the door”.
 
I’m going to pick up where we left off: the NYSE cumulative breadth had made new highs but I was unimpressed with the action. I’m still shaking the sand out of my swim trunks but I hope to catch up to what I missed and hit the ground running soon.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Dr. Brett Steenbarger from the TraderFeed blog discussing topics that new traders should learn. TAKE THE TIME TO LEARN THE BASICS BEFORE TRADING.  OBSERVATION OF THE MARKETS FROM MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES BEFORE LIVE TRADING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE YOUR CHANCES OF SUCCESS.  HAVE A FRAMEWORK FOR HOW PRICES MOVE.  PUT IN THE TIME TO LEARN THE MARKETS AND ACQUIRE SKILLS BEFORE RISKING CAPITAL!

What New Traders Need to Learn

Kudos to John Forman, who has assembled an edited volume specific to the questions most asked by developing traders. A variety of experienced traders and market bloggers have participated in the volume, offering a mix of viewpoints. It is often quite difficult for new traders to obtain impartial guidance in starting their careers, so such resources are quite valuable. The topics for the questions range from trading mechanics and trading psychology to market analysis and trading careers. Good stuff!

In general, I would highlight three areas of learning that I would want to have if I were looking to start out as a trader today:

1) Macroeconomics
I would want to have a grasp of intermarket relationships and how monetary policy affects interest rates, currencies, and economic growth. This information may not determine the trade over the next half-hour, but it does govern the market's longer time frame picture and help determine market trends. A lack of understanding of macroeconomics and intermarket relationships has been a major reason many short-term traders have lost money fighting the market over the last few months.

2) A Trading Theory
A trader needs a framework for thinking about price movement and making sense out of the steady stream of price changes across markets. I'm not sure that it matters greatly whether traders subscribe to one theory or another, but I am certain that having an explanatory framework is better than not having one. Personally, I have found Market Profile theory to be an especially useful way of conceptualizing market action across time frames. Other people find Elliott Wave theory or any of a variety of technical analysis frameworks to be useful.

3) Observation
Hands down, the smartest thing I ever did when learning how to trade was to watch markets for a long time before trying to trade them. I collected charts of intraday action and, each day, looked for the best trading opportunities. Over time, I started to see repetitive patterns among those opportunities and those became important to my subsequent trading. Watching not only price, but volume, sector behavior, intermarket action, and such measures as NYSE TICK help you recognize the dynamics of breakouts, reversals, and trends.

Knowing what I know today, if I were starting out as a trader or advising a beginning trader, I would advocate at least a full year of learning, observation, and practice trading before putting money at risk. I strongly believe that a major reason new traders don't succeed is that they fail to put in the necessary time to learn markets and acquire skills.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Mike Bellafiore from the SMB Capital blog discussing the disproportionate return on effort for beginning traders. YOU WILL STRUGGLE WITH TRADING WHEN YOU FIRST BEGIN!  IN ORDER TO SURVIVE THE EXCEPTIONALLY STEEP LEARNING CURVE, YOU NEED TO TO DO EVERYTHING YOU CAN TO BETTER YOUR PERFORMANCE.  USE EVERYDAY TO THE FULLEST!  THIS EFFORT MAY ONLY YIELD A SMALL AMOUNT OF IMPROVEMENT INITIALLY, BUT THE EFFECTS ARE CUMULATIVE.  CONTINUAL EXCESSIVE EFFORT WILL BUILD PERFORMANCE INERTIA RESULTING IN MORE PROPORTIONATE RETURNS ON YOUR ENERGY!

10X = X

Maybe I am starting to get a little old. Maybe the half a generation removed from most of our traders is the difference. Then there is my pending marriage and their out-till-4AM shenanigans. But I see a disturbing trend with a few developing traders and some potential new traders who we interview (interrogate?). I want to emphasize that I see this with only a few. These new traders believe that if their work output is X then their reward must be X. If only that were the case. When you begin as a trader, your work output must be 10x to make x. Let’s discuss.

I do not want you to be in that group of a few. And I have seen this with a few former talented individuals on our desk who consequently were asked to leave (See Why Traders Fail in One Good Trade (Wiley). And I see this with a few of our present traders who have all been talked to. And some of these above were the most talented people we have ever trained. But that is never enough for the market. Potential absent sustained effort is not rewarded by the market.

What I see from my seat as a mentor on a trading desk is crystal clear. The developing traders who love trading and work at it do the best. Our most improved trader this month has done everything a developing trader is supposed to do and then more. Much, much, more. Today as he reviews his numbers for the month, there will be a huge smile on his face.

Little things can make all the difference. Do you watch the markets trade during the midday and search for important levels into the Close? Or do you take a two hour lunch? After the Close, do you obsessively replay your trading day in your head and feed your mind with your best set ups? Do you leverage the power of simulation? Or are you immersed in Fantasy Baseball? Do you take all the time that is necessary to ensure that you are in the best trading stocks for your style before the Open? Or do you settle on the first stock that could work? Do you work on your mental weaknesses by performing visualization exercises? Or do you just assume you don’t need to do stuff like that?

From my seat most developing traders struggle when they first start. This is all part of the process. And then they have a choice. They can increase their work output to 10x. Or like all traders who fail they can do 1/2x. After they start doing 1/2x then their results are inevitably -3x. Traders who decide to do 10x then see x.

And then with trading experience and a constant work product of 10x developing traders see 2x, and then 3x. And then with this experience their work product can decrease to 9x and see a gain up to 5x, and then 8x for a gain of 6x, and then 7x for a gain of 7x. Only after years of a work product that is not proportionally rewarded can they then see a work product that is properly rewarded.

In May of 2009 I was at a Hall of Fame dinner for a friend in upstate NY. One of the HOF receipients had passed. His wife spoke in his honor. Her speech was moving. This woman’s accomplished husband had passed and she was still so young. What was there really to gain from this speech? The people in the room respected her husband, which was why he was being inducted. Most of the people were her friends so she didn’t need to impress them. She was retired so it’s not like this was going to help her career. There was little for her to gain.

And yet this woman inspired the room. With the care she had taken with the preparation of her words she shouted to everyone in the room, “If you are asked to do something then you do it well.” She never uttered these words. But it was in every line as she reflected on the her husband’s life. She had scoured his old year book, called up old friends for anecdotes, and asked her children what was most important about their father. She had worked on this 5 minute speech for days, with almost no reward to herself. In a room filled with mostly retired jocks she left many in joyful tears, remembering the life of her HOF husband.

We can all learn from this remarkable speech. If you want to be a HOF trader then embrace the value of doing something well for the sake of doing something well. If you are asked to do something then do it as well as you can. There really is nothing else that is as satisfying. For the developing trader, 10x equals x.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Charles Kirk from The Kirk Report blog discussing the difficulties of trading with an ego. YOUR EGO IS THE ENEMY! IT WILL SKEW YOUR THINKING AND EXCITE EMOTIONAL RESPONSES. RECOGNIZE JUSTIFICATION MODE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID CATASTROPHIC LOSSES. ANALYZE THE MARKET FROM LONG AND SHORT PERSPECTIVES TO BALANCE OUT YOUR EGO! LEARN TO LIMIT THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF YOUR EMOTIONS!

Justification Mode

Earlier this month I shared a quote in the email newsletter that seems to have struck a strong cord with a few of you...

"The ego is not your friend as a trader. The ego wants to be right, it wants to predict, and it wants to know secrets. The ego makes it much more difficult to trade well by avoiding the cognitive biases that hinder profits." - Curtis M. Faith

That quote came to mind this morning when having a conversation with a fellow trader who I think is in what I call "justification mode."

Justification mode is when traders (or investors) find themselves having to justify poor performance on something that seems logical and which helps comfort and protect their ego without having to own up and face a big mistake.

In this trader's case, like a lot of people it seems he went and stayed short when the market rolled over last month. Although he won't admit it to you now, I know from our prior emails he was sucked in by the infamous "death cross" and, in spite of a strong reversal, has now refused to reverse his short (and losing) positions. In fact, his ego is so involved with this short-trade that he's recently doubled down when the market refused to roll over even using lots of leverage to prove his point. Now he's in a painful position of being trapped between owning up to the mistake and taking the painful loss or doing what so many tend to do - find a way simply to justify his actions and let a growing loss have the potential to wipe him out entirely.

In our conversation this morning, this trader kept talking about "the market is in a trading range" and "ready to roll over." That's fine and well as long as the price action confirms that view, but it hasn't yet. As I asked him this morning, "Can you afford simply to stay wrong just to protect your ego?" He didn't know how to respond. In fact, it became clear that he didn't even realize that his ego was becoming such a strong influence over his entire market analysis. I suspect, as he does as well now after talking to me, that if this trader's positions were different, for example aggressively long the market instead of short, this same trader would not be seeing a "trading range" or a market "ripe for reversal." Instead, he would see nothing but more upside potential. This is why human traders, with human egos, are often at a significant disadvantage.

Trust me, at one point or the other, we've all done this. I know I have been in justification mode many times even when I didn't even realize it until much later on. However, over time, I've learned to spot to tell tale signs that I've fallen trap to this and then have learned to take immediate corrective steps to right the ship. Moreover, as many of you also know, at all times I also trade in a way that makes sure that when I do make mistakes (which are often) that they NEVER have the potential to wipe me out. When your ego gets so involved in your trading, the potential for catastrophic losses are tremendous which is why we've all have to learn and know when we've fallen into justification mode.

As most experienced traders will tell you, the most difficult thing about trading well is that you've got to learn for yourself how to stop protecting your ego and readily own up to mistakes quickly before they do significant and lasting real damage. No matter how hard you try, you will never be able to entirely separate your ego away from your trading. Those who tell you that you can, are, in my view, just wrong and have little understanding about how to trade well. As long as you are human, you are going to trade with both emotion and ego, but the better traders among us simply learn how to work with both in ways that limit their negative influence.

To help you do that, be sure to always ask yourself the following question especially when you find yourself trapped by poor positioning: "If I held the exact opposite bias, how would that impact my overall analysis of the market right now?" In other words, if you are currently short the market, how would your analysis change if you were long? That will help you think in a way that will help you at least spot the clues when you're in justification mode so you can take the necessary corrective action even when it hurts your ego to do so.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Dr. Brett Steenbarger from the TraderFeed blog discussing the difference between those who succeed and those who fail. BE CREATIVE AND GENERATE MORE IDEAS ABOUT MARKET VIEWS.  BE MOTIVATED BY THE PROCESS OF FINDING SOLUTIONS! PERSISTENCE COMBINED WITH PROPER MOTIVATION CAN LEAD TO GREAT SUCCESS IN THE MARKETS!

Productivity and Success in Life and Markets

As the saying goes, the difference between "try" and "triumph" is a little "umph". But where does that "umph" come from?

When we read through the research literature on factors that distinguish highly productive and successful people, we find that the capacity to sustain directed effort ranks high on the list. Dean Keith Simonton found that creative geniuses fail (i.e., they produce undistinguished works) as often as their more pedestrian colleagues. What differentiates the geniuses is that they produce so much more than others. If 5% of one's output represents true excellence, the person who generates 100 works will have five memorable successes. The person who generates 10 works may produce nothing memorable.

I find this to be true among very successful traders: they simply generate more ideas than their peers. They come up with more ideas regarding market, they invent more ways of viewing markets, and they arrive at more tweaks to guide their trading. It's not that they run from one promised holy grail to another. Rather, they generate new views of markets and trading that open doors to fresh opportunity.

One trader I worked with came up with a promising idea for a trading signal. He tried it in one market and it failed dismally. He persisted and tried it in another market and it gave random results. He then tried it on a different time scale and found considerable promise. After further refinements, that signal now makes good money for the trader.

Had the trader given up after the first or second attempt, he would have never found a creative solution for his trading. It was persistence--the capacity to sustain a search--that enabled him to succeed.

But it wasn't that he was more motivated to make money than other traders. Rather, he was more motivated by the process of finding solutions. He loved the hunt, the challenge of finding new ways to view and trade markets. What turned him on was the process of discovery, not just the prospect of profits.

What gave the "umph" to his "try" was interest and curiosity. He was as engaged in markets when they were closed as when they were trading. He didn't have more motivation than others; he had the right kind of motivation.

Monday, July 12, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by Mike Bellafiore from the SMB Capital blog discussing tips for interviewing. BE ABLE TO PROVE YOU ARE PASSIONATE WITH CLEAR EXAMPLES.  PROVE YOU ALREADY ARE AN ELITE PERFORMER. START TRADING WITH A SMALL CASH ACCOUNT.  PRESENT A CLEAR MESSAGE ABOUT YOURSELF AND ALWAYS REMEMBER A THANK YOU NOTE!

Ten Interview Tips for Proprietary Trading

It is recruiting season for SMB again. That means some long trips, like the one I am on now, stuck on a train Friday night between Providence and New Haven. I actually got on the early train mistakenly and am in danger of getting booted off the train at New Haven. Seriously the Amtrak ticket collector (that is probably not her real title which may explain why I am about to get kicked off) scolded, “I will talk to to the train conductor about what she wants to do with you.” That doesn’t sound very good. Hey if I get kicked off in New Haven I could always just try and get some of that Sally’s Pizza (best pizza on earth). That would not be so bad.

Anyway I am on my way home from Brown, after an afternoon talking to a dozen exceptional young people (what a great school!). Maybe not so much with a big pizza now that I think about it. I had lunch with one of our summer interns and grabbed a humongous chocolate chip cookie on the way out for my train ride home. I am detecting a sugar coma about to visit.

It is no secret that the job market is ultracompetitive for college seniors and transitioning finance professionals. I thought since I have about another two hours before we reach my NYC destination I would offer my perspective on prop trading interviews. I interview quite a bit. We are always searching for those who will be a good fit for our desk and for whom we are a good fit. Coaches are only as good as the players they coach. Below are some thoughts from my perspective as a partner for those seeking to land an opportunity on a prop trading desk.

1 ) Don’t sell me. Don’t tell me you are passionate about trading if you are not. It takes me two questions to learn if you are. First I ask whether you have a personal trading account. Then I will ask what trading blogs you read daily. The worst thing for all parties is to sell me you love trading and then I learn 6 months in that you are not. If trading is not your first love, then start from this place. Emphasize why you can become a great trader anyway.

2 ) Research the company and your interviewer. There is no better way to start an interview than to say something comparable to this:”Hi Mr. Bellafiore I recognize you from your site’s videos.” This tops a blank stare on your face when I shake your hand indicating you have no idea who the hell I am. Before I meet anyone new for a business meeting I ask one of our interns to research the person I am meeting and brief me. If you do not prepare for the interview why would I assume you will prepare properly for each trading day?

3 ) Trade. Those who want to become traders find a way to trade. Open an account even if modest and start trading. There is no stronger argument that you want to be a trader than you already are.

4 ) Read trading blogs. Isn’t it a difficult argument for you to make to a trading partner that you are passionate about trading yet cannot rattle off three trading blogs that you read daily. Recently I met a college senior who talked in depth about how he used principles he learned from TraderFeed to improve his poker playing. Can you say Second Round Interview Invitation?

5 ) Live a life of achievement. Traders are elite performers. Prop firms do not want to take a risk on you learning how to become one on their dime.

6 ) You are not being graded on whether we are going to become best friends. Be respectful and likable but do not try too hard to make a connection. We are interested in finding those who are the best fit for us. Be likable but we do not have to become future best friends or make an instant connection. I am a 39 year old partner. I care about building my firm. I am persuaded by a logical argument that you can become a great trader and not my personal reaction to you in our 15 minute old relationship. More clearly, I care whether you are a good risk/reward for my firm not if you would be cool to grab drinks with?

And never use the word “man or dude.” This does not show you are likable. It shows that you overvalue likability during an interview.

7 ) Be thoughtful. The best way to show you are respectful and interested in this job is to consider the question asked and do the best you can to present the interviewer with the best information you can offer.

8 ) It’s an interview! This is not an exercise in talking about how awesome you are. The firm thinks highly of you which is why it has decided to take the time to meet with you and learn more about you. But be ready to discuss your weaknesses and answer difficult questions without taking this personally or as a signal the firm is not interested.

9 ) Have a clear message you wish to communicate. What do you want the interviewee to remember about you? Stay on message.

10 ) Always write a thank you note. I am amazed at how few thank you notes I get after an interview. Steve has a rule that we will not hire anyone who fails to thank us for our time. We do not have to become fast friends but you do not have to demonstrate proper etiquette.

And a few more things…..

The first job you take out off college will not determine the rest of your life (I started as a clerk at the CT General Assembly). You do not have to get it right on the first try. The process of what you decide to do is important. Make a list of what is important to you and then find the job that fits your interest. Anything else is a social loss.

After “Outliers”, “Talent is Overrated” and now “SuperFreakonomics” it is well established that you will only become great at something through hard work. You will work hard at the things you love. This economy is so awful (although the market does not seem to care presently) that your first job will most likely not offer a huge payday. So what exactly is your argument these days not to do what you really love?

And please do not take rejection personally. You are who you are. If the firm decides you are not a good fit that does not say anything about you. It says that at the moment their needs are different from your interests. This is not a rejection. This is an opportunity for you to find a firm that is a better fit for you.

By the way the Assistant Train Conductor just informed me that the Conductor said I can stay on the train. I love Amtrak!

Best of luck to all college seniors in this very difficult job market. You will find your way.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a pair of posts by Charles Kirk from The Kirk Report blog discussing the pros and cons of being an independent trader working from home. PAST SUCCESS MEANS NOTHING!  TRADING WILL ALWAYS BE CHALLENGING AND REQUIRES CONSTANT EDUCATION AND LEARNING.  GOAL SETTING AND TIME MANAGEMENT WILL PLAY A CRITICAL PART IN YOUR DEVELOPMENT AND SUCCESS.

Independent Trading: Pros & Cons

Sunday was "Independence Day" in the United States where we celebrate the birth of our country and declaring independence from Britain. It also got me to thinking, as I usually do on market holidays, how fortunate I am to be doing what I do for a living in this country. While America faces many, many challenges and uncertainties, I'm proud and happy I live here and thankful for the opportunities this country has provided me and my family!

In fact, there's probably no better time than the present to talk briefly about the pros and cons of being an "independent trader."

As someone who has worked independently for most of my professional career, you can say I place a tremendous value on "doing my own thing." As I've often said, at least for me it has been a combination of personal choice (what I want in both life and career) and also necessity (as I don't play well with others). Indeed, there are some tremendous positives for trading independently. After all, I wouldn't be doing this if there were not some significant advantages from doing so!

Here are a few things that first come to mind:
  • As an independent trader, I set my goals and I'm in charge of my own destiny. I don't rely on any other person for how much money I make or how I make it. Other people's opinions of me are irrelevant to my own destiny. At the end of the day, bottom line trading results (not office politics) are all that matters.
  • Most people in "normal jobs" don't have the opportunity to set out on their own and do something they really want and love to do and also make plenty of money doing it.
  • I spend most of my time every day doing things I really like to do (trading, reading, researching, running screens & mentoring others). These are things I would do even if I were not paid to do them because it is what I like to do the most! Every day I plan my work on things I want to work on, not what others want me to work on. That level of professional autonomy is rare.
  • The sense of accomplishment when you achieve success in the markets independently is unparalleled. There's nothing like finding and taking a good trade that produces lots of upside gain. This is especially true when that trade is unpopular and unforeseen by the herd.
  • Through my research I've been able to learn about many things, many industries, many countries, and many people. At this point, I can have a conversation with just about anyone no matter what they do for a living or where they live because I know something we can probably talk about based on what I've learned and know about others.
  • It is always interesting and I'm NEVER bored. It is so true there is no better drama on Earth than following and being a participant in the markets daily.
  • There are no meetings. People, often in corporate America but in many walks of professional life, waste so much time on so many irrelevant things like business meetings. At least if I'm going to waste time, it will be something worth wasting it on!
  • There is no commute or dress code. I fall out of bed at 5AM and go to work in shorts and a tee shirt. I don't have to dress up or even take a shower. In fact, I only own one dress suit and that's because I may have to go to an occasional funeral or wedding. Finally, I don't have to spend an hour or more in the car every day just going to and from work. That's a good way to live and work!
  • I can live and trade from just about anywhere in the world. Although we have found a little slice of heaven living here in Southern Utah (Cedar City) where the people are nice, the weather is great, housing costs are low, plenty of excellent golf courses nearby, we have dozens of national parks for hiking within a day's drive, Vegas is not too far away, and so on - if and when we tire of it, we can move anywhere we want to and I can still earn a good living.
  • Trading independently offers level of personal freedom that isn't present in most jobs. If I want a day off to play golf, help a friend, visit with family, I do it. I don't have to ask anyone for permission! However, offering a paid members-only website places some severe limitations on that freedom!
So, now I've talked about the positives, what are the downsides to trading independently?

While many people think I have a dream job and, in many ways I do, there's no career choice that doesn't also have its own set of unique negatives. Frankly, if most of you actually had to do what I do every day to reach your financial and career goals, I think quite a few of you would begin to question whether "trading for a living" is really the right way to go.

There are many misconceptions about trading out there primarily due to shady marketing practices by those who sell investment services and trading products. Many in this business unfortunately propagate to their own benefit the view that trading for a living is an easy way to get rich without any time or effort. The truth is that it can often be, and has been, a challenging career choice and one frankly that is less than ideal for many people I encounter.

As for the downsides, here are a few you should be familiar with if trading for a living is a career you seek:
  • You've got to bring your A game to the table each and every day. There is no sitting in a cubicle playing solitaire, visiting with facebook friends, talking with others in the break room about fantasy football, etc. that is going to get the job done for you. Your efforts, whatever they may be, will be directly related to your bottom line returns!
  • Past success means absolutely nothing. You are only as good as your next trade, your next week, your next quarter, etc. In addition, what you do next always has the potential to unravel whatever success you've acquired previously. Few careers offer you the potential for self-destruction so quickly the way trading for a living provides.
  • The pressure to perform will create unbelievable amounts of negative stress and energy you'll have to deal with daily. Most people don't have to worry or fear that being wrong will cost them their paycheck. After all, just look at economists, bankers, and politicians!
  • There will be little to no respect or understanding for what you do for a living. People will assume you're a "day trading gambler." Or, in my view, which is even worse, many idiots will express the view that they could also "trade for a living" if they decided to. This is true even in by those who've shown no consistent success in the markets on a "part-time basis."
  • Working in isolation you'll often miss close human interaction and the lack of a competitive "team" like atmosphere. Also, building and holding outside friendships, especially for men later on in life, are often very difficult for those who don't meet a lot of people through their jobs.
  • Sitting 12 hours a day every day at the computer will wreak havoc on your overall health and fitness. Many traders are overweight, have back issues, eyesight problems, etc.
  • Like many highly skilled professions it requires constant education & learning. In many, but not all careers, once you've acquired a certain amount of skills and knowledge, little more is expected of you. In trading, you've got to always be in learning mode. In addition, what you think you know right now and what is working for you, will not someday in the future. That's the way of constant evolutionary state of the marketplace.
  • You've got to be a jack of all trades. I've often said that if trading was the only thing I had to do, my life would be a whole lot easier. Instead, independent traders must spend time serving as their very own tax accountant and tech support guru. In my view, there's nothing worse than a hardware or software issue that takes you away from concentrating on the markets.
  • There will be very long work days and work weeks. Those who say you can trade successfully in 10 minutes a week are liars and charlatans. Most independent traders put in between 50 to 60 hour work weeks and are considered "grinders" rather than trading "wizards." Remember, there are no holidays or weekends for professional independent traders - only more time to devote to charts, scans, research, and strategies!
  • You've got to have money to make money. There are very high capital requirements involved in being an independent trader as it takes a lot of money set aside from your personal assets to produce a living wage for yourself and your family.
  • Your "salary" will vary considerably based on things outside of your control like overall market conditions and how your strategy is in sync with the market. It is true, you'll make 90% of your income in 10% of your time. However, overhead costs will remain constant and there's nothing worse than having to grind out trades in an unreceptive market to "make the mortgage."
  • Even when you make a lot of money and have experienced tremendous success, you've got to still live like a pauper. There are no golden parachutes, annual bonuses, etc. that are going to save you when you screw up in the future. And, trust me, you will screw up. You will make bad decisions. You will be on the wrong side of a trending market. It happens to everyone and it is never fun or profitable! Which is why when the sun is shining, we've got to always prepare for those future rainy days.
  • Personal, family relationships can be difficult. Like most people, when things aren't going well, many will look for others to blame and take it out on their spouses and family members. Divorce rates are high among independent traders. The only way around that is to find endeavors that release this negative energy (like golf, hiking & daily exercise). In addition, I seldom see successful independent traders who don't also have a very strong family support structure in place. If your life is a mess, your trading will often be as well.
  • Distractions at home will be both numerous and frequent. As independent traders who work from home, everyone else will think you can spare time for doing other things during the normal work day (i.e. like going to the grocery store, getting the house worked on, taking the cars in for repair, mowing the grass, taking kids to the doctor, doing laundry, etc.) In addition, there are things you'll want to do as well (like playing golf) when you should be looking through charts that are going to distract you constantly from achieving the results you desire.
  • As an independent trader working a "zero sum game," nothing you do every day as a trader other than making money will be a benefit to others or society in general. While you will have plenty of opportunities to donate to charity in order to give back something, independent traders must work really hard at finding good and effective ways to make a "real difference" for other people. My late father once said to me that "when you die, the good Lord will ask you who on Earth you really helped freely and without personal gain. You better have a lot of names to give to him or you're going to be in big trouble son!" It is true - we all get caught up in our crazy game of beating the markets that we forget how others have to really struggle to "work for a living." Also, even the best of us fail to do enough to make a true, positive AND lasting difference in other people's lives beyond just donating some of our profits to charity.
While I know I've missed a few of the negatives and positives, I think this at least offers some perspective on what it means to trade independently as I have all of these years.

All in all, I have no regrets and I'm happy today as I've been in the past to do what I do for a living. Whatever you do, I hope you feel the exact same way and, if you don't - you have both the courage and conviction to make a real change for the better. Life is far too short for anything less than that!

The great thing about this country is that whatever you want to do, you're still free to do it. I hope you exercise and take fully advantage of that liberty!

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a pair of posts by Mike Bellafiore from SMB Capital blog discussing interview and new trader characteristics that appear noteworthy.  BE ABLE TO DEMONSTRATE PASSION FOR TRADING!  GET ANY EXPERIENCE POSSIBLE SUCH AS READING BLOGS, BOOKS, STOCKTWITS, TRADE SIMULATORS, EXTERNSHIPS, INTERNSHIPS, AND FOLLOWING THE CURRENT MARKETS BEHAVIOR!  ALWAYS EVOLVE WITH DISCIPLINED FOCUS.

Be Like Travis - INTERVIEW

I talked with a recent college graduate the other day. Nice kid. Well dressed. Polite. From one of those upper middle class lacrosse playing Long Island towns. On paper an excellent fit for most trading desks. This young man has no business being on a trading floor, considering being on a trading floor, or hoping to be on a trading floor. He is not interested in trading.

How do I know this? Because he doesn’t do anything, hasn’t done anything, wasn’t thinking of doing anything to learn about trading. I got the old I find myself watching CNBC often answer to the question of an example you are passionate about trading. Please. Come up with a better answer if you want a job at a prop desk. Make something up if you have to (well don’t do this really). But please do not sit in front of me and use the old CNBC line when I have a pile of candidates who have traded, read trading blogs, and can reference one of my previous posts. Please. I am asking very nicely. Please.

I did a favor for an old friend of mine and took a call from a recent graduate looking into Wall Street. Nice kid. Played lacrosse in college. Great school. Very very polite. Will be a star when he follows his passion. After one minute on the phone I could tell he was not interested in trading. The call was very short. At dinner later that night my friend gave me $hit about not at least interviewing the kid. I suppose that was a good point, but let me be clear, it would have just been to build this recent graduate’s interviewing skills. Because there was not going to be a second round at SMB. He was not interested in trading.

And then there is Travis. Travis is in high school. He and a friend came to visit SMB to learn more about trading. Again, he is in high school. His friend already trades. Travis and his friend flew from middle america, over a holiday weekend, to learn more about trading. Most kids his age are planning that huge party for the 4th and trying not to get caught. Or they are scheming how to get that local hottie to accept a movie date to the latest action thriller (this is a very good use of your time by the way gentlemen).

Come to think of it, how the hell did Travis get invited to one of our Tradecasts if he was in high school? Charlie. That must have taken some maneuvering. How would he even know who SMB was? How would he know who to contact at our firm to get an invite? Charlie. I need talk to our Floor Manager.

Think about when Travis graduates and he interviews at a prop firm. HR will ask,”What in your past demonstrates your passion for trading?” Travis might reply, “I have traded since HS. I read alphatrends, SMB’s Blog, The Big Picture, Mish, Jeff Miller, Abnormal Returns, Steven Place, The Kirk Report, Seeking Alpha, T3 Live, Kass, Tickerville, Dr. Brett, etc. I run our school’s student portfolio account. I interned at SMB one summer, then JPM’s prop desk, and Morgan Stanley sales trading during the school year. Right now I am long Gold, short SPY, short the Euro, long treasuries, long AAPL, long BIDU, with some options positions in the VIX.”

Imagine if you wanted a job on a prop desk and answer like Travis. Talk about a WOW answer!

Do what you do! Be Like Travis. Life is too short, with too much opportunity, and too important not to be the best at what you do. And to be great generally means starting early, working hard, having a passion for your work, and doing everything you can think of to succeed.


Be Like Mike - NEW TRADER

For those of you who are avid fans of the NBA you have probably heard the stories of how Michael Jordan use to practice as a member of the Bulls. He was totally cutthroat. It was not uncommon for fisticuffs to breakout between him and some of the bigger players on the second unit during scrimmages. He hated to lose that much!

One of our newer trainees has a Jordan like work ethic. Of the dozens of trainees we have worked with during the past few years he is by far the most fully engaged in learning the craft of trading. He wakes up 5:00AM each morning to make sure he can be at the office no later than 7:30. He never misses a weekend video review session. His daily trading journal contains copious notes, and he has a level of trading discipline I have rarely seen from a novice trader. During his demo trading he traded as if he were trading live, never violating the basic trading principles he was taught.

I have no idea if he will become the next great trader. But I do know that his chances for trading success are markedly higher than those I have seen screwing around trading 5,000 GOOG on the simulator, rolling into the office at 8:40, and entering notes into their trading journals as often as BP runs safety checks on their oil rigs.

Coincidentally his name is also Mike. My recommendation to all those young guns out their who want to trade professionally for a living is to be like Mike!

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Trading Experience - Lesson Learned

Below is a post by James Altucher from The Wall Street Journal blog discussing the important lessons he learned from his trading mentor. TEST AS MANY TRADING IDEAS AS YOU CAN TO UNDERSTAND MARKET BEHAVIOR.  TRADE YOUR HIGH PROBABILITY EGDES WITH SIZE AND CONFIDENCE.  ALWAYS BE OPTIMISTIC, THERE IS GOOD IN EVERY SITUATION.  PROTECT, PROTECT, PROTECT PRECIOUS CAPITAL!

Ten Things I Learned While Trading for Victor Niederhoffer
 
I traded for Victor Niederhoffer for about a year starting in 2003. I was up slightly more than 100% for him, primarily trading futures using a quantitative approach. During that period I had one down month: June 2003.
 
Victor was a top trader for George Soros before starting his own fund in the ’90s and then writing the classic investment text “Education of a Speculator.” He then suffered one of several blowups in his career when his fund crashed to zero while on the wrong side of a couple of bets during the Asian currency crisis in 1997 (most notably, he was short S&P puts when the market crashed that year).
 
Despite that, Victor has consistently traded his own portfolio quite successfully and is one of the best traders I’ve seen in action. He still posts his daily comments on trading and the markets at his site dailyspeculations.com.
 
Here are 10 things I learned during my time trading for Victor:
 
1.) Test, test, test.
Test everything you can. If someone says to me, “There’s inflation coming so you better short stocks,” I know right away the person doesn’t test and will lose money. Data is available for almost anything you can imagine. (In my talks, I always discuss the “blizzard system” based on data of what the stock market does depending on how many inches of snow have fallen in Central Park that day). Victor and his crew would spend all day testing ideas: What historically happens to the market on a Fed day? What happens on options expiration day if the two prior days were negative? Do stocks that start with the letter “x” outperform? Nothing was beyond testing.
 
2.) Optimism.
There’s plenty of reasons every day to assume the world is going to end. The media is constantly speculating about imminent financial collapse, hyperinflation, peak oil, pandemics, terrorism, etc. One of Victor’s favorite books, which I highly recommend, is “Triumph of the Optimists,” which shows the success of the U.S. markets over the past century over other markets and asset classes. Yes, the markets take a hit. But invariably buying dips (and being careful not to get wiped out) will be a long-term strategy for success.
 
3.) Fearlessness.
I had a big March 2003 trading for Victor. The market was threatening to go to new lows at the advent of the Iraqi war. I went long and strong and had a great month. Then, for the rest of the year, for fear of destroying a great track record, I would go up a few percentage points at the beginning of each month and then coast for the rest of the month, probably leaving another 100% or so on the table as I passed on trading many high probability situations. I always suspected Victor was very disappointed in me for that. When you have a high probability situation, trade it and trade it big.
 
4.) Everything Is Connected.
Whether you are studying baseball, checkers, trees, wars – all contain patterns similar to the patterns we see every day in trading. Sometimes the best way to get perspective on your trading is to study something seemingly unrelated and to then consider the analogies.
 
5.) Ayn Rand.
There’s a lot of retrospectives right now about Rand, one of Victor’s favorite authors. I don’t care much for the so-called Objectivism or Rand’s views on capitalism, but what struck me about her books was the emphasis on competence. Her novels are about competence and the personal gratification one gets by being good at what you do, whether it’s building railroads, designing a building, trading or cleaning a house.
 
6.) Warren Buffett.
Victor is not a fan of Warren Buffett. This forced me to look at Buffett in a whole new way. Is Buffett a value investor? What other tricks of the trade has Buffett used over the years? I ended up reading every biography of Buffett, going through four decades of SEC filings, and pouring over not only his Berkshire letters but his prior letters from his hedge fund days (1957-1969). The result was my book, “Trade Like Warren Buffett.”
 
7.) The First Day of the Month.
It’s probably the most important trading day of the month, as inflows come in from 401(k) plans, 1RAs, etc. and mutual fund have to go out there and put this new money into stocks. Over the past 16 years, buying the close on SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) on the last day of the month and selling one day later would result in a successful trade 63% of the time with an average return of 0.37% (as opposed to 0.03% and a 50%-50% success rate if you buy any random day during this period). Various conditions take place that improve this result significantly. For instance, one time I was visiting Victor’s office on the first day of a month and one of his traders showed me a system and said, “If you show this to anyone we will have to kill you.” Basically, the system was: If the last half of the last day of the month was negative and the first half of the first day of the month was negative, buy at 11 a.m. and hold for the rest of the day. “This is an ATM machine” the trader told me. I leave it to the reader to test this system.
 
8.) Always Protect the Downside.
This is learned by negative example. As Nassim Taleb has pointed out ad nauseum, Black Swans occur. (See the Malcolm Gladwell article on Taleb to see Taleb’s thoughts on Victor.) No matter how much you test, there will be a “this time is different” moment that will force your bank account into oblivion. I trade a strategy based on selling puts and calls at levels where my software thinks its statistically unlikely the market hits those levels before the next options expirations day. But I also use some of the premium I earned from selling those puts and calls to buy slightly further out puts and calls as insurance the market doesn’t run away from me. No matter how confident the software is, always protect.
 
9.) Keep Life Interesting.
Victor surrounds himself by games and the people who enjoy them. When I knew him, he took regular checkers lessons, played tennis every day, and has some of the oddest collections I’ve ever seen. He stands out on a crowded city street and seems to spend part of each day seeking out new and interesting experiences. He often asked me what I’d been reading and if it was trading related he was disappointed. Trading is ultimately a window into the psyche of the world at that moment. Uncovering the nuances of that psyche is ultimately more important than doing the latest test on what happens after a Fed announcement (but, on that point, tests have shown that whatever the market is doing before a 2:15p.m. Fed announcement on Fed days, chances are it will reverse after 2:15).
 
10.) Be Open to New Ideas.
In 2002, I was still reeling from the dot-com collapse. I had sold a company near the height of the insanity in 1998 and also started a VC fund that opened up doors in March, 2000, the absolute peak of the market. I was trying to figure out new things to do. I came up with a list of about 30 people I looked up to and came up with 10 ideas for each person about how they could improve their business. To Victor, I sent a series of trading ideas that I had both backtested and had traded successfully. To Jim Cramer, I sent a list of 10 ideas for articles he should write. Of the 30 people, they were the only two who responded and ultimately I ended up managing a little bit of money for Victor and writing for Jim Cramer’s site, thestreet.com. I’m grateful for the opportunities that both people created for me.